Tax refund season kicks off in January, and with it comes renewed speculation about a potential fourth stimulus check in 2026.

President Donald Trump has promised to send dividend payments to “individuals of moderate income” sometime next year, before the midterm elections.

He said:

“We’ve taken in hundreds of millions of dollars in tariff money. We’re going to be issuing dividends later on. Somewhere prior to, you know, probably in the middle of next year, a little bit later than that. Of thousands of dollars for individuals of moderate income, middle income.”

But during a recent Oval Office interview, Trump appeared confused when reminded of his pledge to send $2,000 checks to most Americans, a promise tied to tariff revenue.

“I did do that? When did I do that?” Trump asked, seemingly forgetting the commitment.

He quickly clarified that he was thinking of a different program — the $1,776 bonus for service members — but insisted the $2,000 payments would likely come toward the end of the year, funded by “substantial” tariff revenue.

“The tariff money is so substantial that’s coming in, that I’ll be able to do 2,000 sometime, I would say, toward the end of the year,” Trump told reporters.

The plan, which aims to give middle- and low-income Americans $2,000 each, has raised questions about whether the expected tariff revenue is enough. Experts warn the cost could reach $600 billion — far more than the $90 billion raised from tariffs as of late September.

The administration’s tariff-based plan faces legal challenges. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the tariffs’ legality soon. If the court sides against the administration, it could require refunds of the tariff revenue.

Worried about the inflationary effects
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also expressed concern about potential inflation: “We’re worried about the inflationary effects of distributing this windfall,” he said, urging Americans to save rather than spend immediately. Republican lawmakers have echoed the concern, warning that the payments could worsen inflation.

Trump has openly warning that the United States would be in serious trouble if the Supreme Court rules against him in the high-stakes case challenging his sweeping tariffs.

”Remember, when America shines brightly, the World shines brightly. In other words, if the Supreme Court rules against the United States of America on this National Security bonanza, WE’RE SCREWED,” he wrote.

“Trillions of dollars”
Trump had promised $2,000 per American after claiming the administration had brought in “trillions of dollars” from tariffs. On Truth Social in November, he wrote:

“People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS! We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37 Trillion. Record Investment in the USA…A dividend of at least $2,000 a person (not including high-income people!) will be paid to everyone.”

He later added that the checks would prioritize “low and middle income US citizens.”

Treasury Secretary Bessent told ABC’s This Week that the $2,000 “dividend” could take many forms, not necessarily a direct check:

“I haven’t spoken to the president about this yet, but… it could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president’s agenda. No tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security. Deductibility of auto loans…So, those are substantial deductions that are being financed in the tax bill.”

Bessent later gave a more concrete update, saying Americans could see “very large refunds” ranging from $1,000 to $2,000 per household, as part of tax cuts.

“I think we’re going to see $100-$150 billion of refunds, which could be between $1,000, $2,000 per household,” he said. He added that changes to withholding status could mean “less tax being taken from each paycheck” and a “real increase” in wages for workers.