A major El Niño event is developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and international weather agencies are warning that it could significantly influence global temperature and rainfall patterns through the end of 2026 and into 2027.

According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño is strengthening and there is now a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026–27. NOAA reported in its September 10 update that sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific were more than 3°C above average in some areas.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has also confirmed that El Niño is firmly established and expected to strengthen further. Its September 2026 update gives an exceptionally high, nearly 100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027. The organization expects the event to reach very strong intensity before reaching its peak toward the end of 2026.

What exactly is El Niño?

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with unusually warm ocean temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The warming affects the atmosphere above the ocean and can change large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Those changes can influence weather patterns thousands of miles away from the Pacific.

El Niño does not produce identical weather everywhere. Instead, it shifts the probability of certain types of weather occurring in different regions. Some areas can experience increased rainfall, while others can experience drought or unusually warm conditions.

Why is this particular event attracting attention?

The current event is developing rapidly and is already associated with unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific.

NOAA’s September analysis found sea-surface-temperature anomalies exceeding +3.0°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific, while the Niño-3.4 region reached +1.8°C in the latest monthly observations used in the report.

The WMO’s September seasonal forecast projected an average Niño-3.4 temperature anomaly of approximately +3.6°C for September–November 2026, with the strengthening trend expected to continue toward November and December.

These measurements and forecasts are why meteorological agencies are closely monitoring the event.

What could happen around the world?

A very strong El Niño can substantially alter normal patterns of temperature and precipitation.

The WMO says the developing event increases the risk of extreme heat, drought and flooding in different parts of the world. However, the effects are regional rather than uniform. One country can experience unusually wet conditions while another experiences unusually dry conditions.

The organization also forecasts above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas during September–November 2026, although the exact conditions will vary considerably from region to region.

El Niño can also influence tropical cyclone activity. Its effects on storms are different in different ocean basins because atmospheric wind patterns and ocean temperatures change in response to the event.

What does this mean for travelers?

There is not a blanket warning that people should stop traveling because of El Niño.

Instead, the developing climate pattern can increase the possibility of weather-related disruption in particular locations and during particular periods.

Travelers could potentially encounter conditions such as heavy rainfall, flooding, extreme heat, drought-related wildfires or other weather disruptions depending on their destination.

The actual conditions at a destination still depend on normal short-term weather systems, local geography and other climate patterns. El Niño is a seasonal climate influence, not a day-to-day weather forecast.

For that reason, travelers should continue checking the official weather and emergency information for their specific destination rather than assuming that every location will experience dangerous conditions.

The effects will not be the same everywhere

One of the most important facts about El Niño is that there is no single worldwide “El Niño weather.”

The WMO specifically notes that the phenomenon can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns around the world. Its seasonal forecasts show different regions facing different probabilities for above- or below-normal temperatures and precipitation.

The final outcome is also influenced by other climate patterns. The WMO is monitoring a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole, while temperatures in parts of the tropical Atlantic are also expected to remain above normal. These additional factors can reinforce, weaken or modify the typical effects of El Niño in particular regions.

When will El Niño peak?

El Niño events commonly reach their strongest point toward the end of the year or during the Northern Hemisphere winter.

For the current event, WMO forecasts indicate continued strengthening during the coming months, with the peak expected toward the end of 2026. The organization expects El Niño conditions to continue influencing the climate into early 2027.

NOAA’s September forecast similarly indicates a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026–27.

Why are scientists monitoring it so closely?

El Niño can affect much more than temperatures.

Changes in rainfall can influence agriculture, water supplies, wildfire conditions and ecosystems. Extreme heat can increase risks for vulnerable populations, while heavy rainfall can contribute to flooding and landslides in susceptible areas.

Because these effects can extend across national borders, international organizations and national meteorological agencies use El Niño forecasts to prepare sectors such as agriculture, health, emergency management, water management and transportation.

The WMO says its network of national meteorological and hydrological services is increasing preparedness and early-warning efforts as the event develops.

What happens next?

The most important period will be the coming months, when El Niño is expected to strengthen toward its peak.

Scientists will continue monitoring ocean temperatures, atmospheric conditions and changes in the Pacific. Forecasts will also be updated as new observations become available.

The current evidence shows that El Niño is real, already established and strengthening. NOAA and WMO both expect the event to become very strong, with effects potentially continuing into 2027.

The phrase “Godzilla El Niño” that has appeared in some media coverage is an informal description rather than an official scientific classification used by NOAA or the WMO. The official terminology currently being used is “very strong El Niño.”

For travelers, the practical message is straightforward: El Niño does not mean that travel worldwide is unsafe, but weather conditions can become more disruptive in some regions. Checking destination-specific weather forecasts, government travel information and local emergency alerts remains the appropriate way to assess conditions before and during a trip.

The 2026 El Niño is one of the major climate developments being monitored worldwide, and the coming months will show how strongly its effects are expressed across different regions.